The touring thing is a really strange one, but it makes sense when you think about it. I could be totally wrong about this but this is how I'm thinking of it with limited knowledge:
Like the Tour may sell out which will pay them & will pay whoever's takes a cut from the massive team they have, but which Media/Shows/Interviews will they do for more capital if they've already went and promoted the Stage?
I feel like If every band and their auntie will be comeback touring after lockdown to make up for losses, so the playing field will be saturated & competitive anyway, so without a release, it might make bands seem less relevant to book as a potential headline tour & expect everyone to go - when on that same night there might be a new Slipknot, Metallica album being toured etc.
There's also that problem you mentioned about people afraid of the virus, or even suffering from long covid who can't/won't make shows - these people won't have an Album to stream, merch to purchase, the Vinyl to buy etc. So that's a massive loss when you think how expensive individual merch items usually are. Merch seems to be small cogs that make up a big surge of musicians income, and they can advertise merch better when it's more current & has something new to promote. But them again merch always sells at shows!
I think your spot on about it being down to the Label in a lot of ways man. It's a super interesting topic to ponder!